Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.55 – 143.36

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.5 ±14.9

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -14.02Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 35.42Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 82.15Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±16.9

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -31.15Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1818Team Talos

Provisional

Season APEX 114.9Event APEX 72.33Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 102.18Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9787, 3468, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9787, 3468, 10217

Auto

20.8 22%

Teleop

63.2 66%

Endgame

11.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5863, 1818, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5863, 1818, 8808

Auto

22.5 16%

Teleop

90.4 64%

Endgame

27.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score143.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.8
Score range: 76–171
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 154.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.5Season APEX435

20.8Auto22.5

63.2Teleop90.4

11.7Endgame27.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	50
teleop	47	114
endgame	19	1
foul	0	20
total	85	185

Result

Final score

85 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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