Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.27 – 35.43

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.4 ±19.3

5965Power Struck Girls

Provisional

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX -2.99Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9708Supersonic Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX -26.02Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 85.28Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.6 ±19.7

1055035 Soaring Roneagles

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 7.94Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX -1.5Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6068Delta Overload

Provisional

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 28.99Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5965, 9708, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5965, 9708, 16

Auto

7.0 13%

Teleop

28.8 52%

Endgame

19.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10550, 1902, 6068

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10550, 1902, 6068

Auto

13.7 54%

Teleop

-6.6 0%

Endgame

18.4 72%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.3pts

Blue projected score35.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 7–84
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 156.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.4Season APEX273.6

7Auto13.7

28.8Teleop-6.6

19.9Endgame18.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	15
teleop	69	13
endgame	59	31
foul	5	10
total	167	69

Result

Final score

167 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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