Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.08 – 35.28

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.2 ±16.4

11260Ursuline Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 34.51Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 17.08Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 67.49Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.3 ±15

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 15.14Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 17.74Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 2.4Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11260, 456, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11260, 456, 3284

Auto

27.1 24%

Teleop

47.9 43%

Endgame

37.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9405, 2080, 5887

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9405, 2080, 5887

Auto

16.0 47%

Teleop

12.6 37%

Endgame

5.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.1pts

Blue projected score35.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.8
Score range: 8–146
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.2Season APEX213.3

27.1Auto16

47.9Teleop12.6

37.6Endgame5.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	15
teleop	134	40
endgame	26	23
foul	0	0
total	214	78

Result

Final score

214 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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