Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.42 – 89.8

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 122.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.9 ±16.1

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 8.17Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 129.54Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1818Team Talos

Provisional

Season APEX 114.9Event APEX 11.71Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.8 ±19.3

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 66.29Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9456Nunez Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 14.47Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9699Bayou Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 9.04Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3039, 4635, 1818

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 4635, 1818

Auto

28.9 20%

Teleop

77.9 54%

Endgame

38.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 364, 9456, 9699

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 9456, 9699

Auto

8.2 9%

Teleop

55.4 63%

Endgame

24.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score89.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.6
Score range: 64–175
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.9Season APEX334.8

28.9Auto8.2

77.9Teleop55.4

38Endgame24.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	16
teleop	249	38
endgame	58	14
foul	0	0
total	373	68

Result

Final score

373 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 122.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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