Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.71 – 315.77

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 120 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±20.5

11276Kenner BruhBots

Provisional

Season APEX 90.6Event APEX 130Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9761LSMSA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 1.14Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 6.57Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 727.4 ±10.4

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 146.91Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 130Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 38.86Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11276, 9761, 9309

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11276, 9761, 9309

Auto

24.0 18%

Teleop

78.0 57%

Endgame

34.3 25%

Strengths

· 11276 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2992, 3937, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2992, 3937, 16

Auto

57.9 18%

Teleop

176.3 56%

Endgame

80.0 25%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.7pts

Blue projected score315.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.1
Score range: 114–340
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.9Season APEX727.4

24Auto57.9

78Teleop176.3

34.3Endgame80

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	55
teleop	23	298
endgame	5	114
foul	0	0
total	49	467

Result

Final score

49 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 120 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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