Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

502.46 – 316.34

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.7 ±13.1

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 261.62Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 15.19Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 225.65Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.3 ±11.7

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 121.15Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 147.82Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 47.37Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 9787, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 9787, 4635

Auto

110.8 23%

Teleop

270.3 55%

Endgame

109.4 22%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8808, 3937, 1421

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 3937, 1421

Auto

42.6 14%

Teleop

168.3 55%

Endgame

93.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score502.5pts

Blue projected score316.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.1
Score range: 282–536
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.7Season APEX585.3

110.8Auto42.6

270.3Teleop168.3

109.4Endgame93.3

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	62
teleop	224	154
endgame	38	34
foul	45	10
total	417	260

Result

Final score

417 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Match videos

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