Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

528.15 – 320.62

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.7 ±13.1

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 268.57Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 24.61Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 234.97Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.3 ±11.7

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 122.25Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 148.76Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 49.61Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 9787, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

528.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 9787, 4635

Auto

114.6 22%

Teleop

284.8 55%

Endgame

117.3 23%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8808, 3937, 1421

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 3937, 1421

Auto

44.8 15%

Teleop

171.1 56%

Endgame

90.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score528.2pts

Blue projected score320.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207.5
Score range: 287–562
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 644 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.7Season APEX585.3

114.6Auto44.8

284.8Teleop171.1

117.3Endgame90.7

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	29
teleop	186	152
endgame	63	110
foul	15	0
total	353	291

Result

Final score

353 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts

Match videos

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