Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.24 – 265.82

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 136 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.9 ±9.3

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 128.95Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 36.05Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 97.24Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.8

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 113.39Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 46.14Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 106.29Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 9491, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.2 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4272, 9491, 1720

Auto

44.5 17%

Teleop

168.9 64%

Endgame

49.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1501, 447, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1501, 447, 2783

Auto

61.3 23%

Teleop

137.9 52%

Endgame

64.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score262.2pts

Blue projected score265.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.6
Score range: 231–297
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.9Season APEX589.9

44.5Auto61.3

168.9Teleop137.9

49.8Endgame64.1

83Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	98
teleop	1	80
endgame	13	23
foul	0	15
total	40	216

Result

Final score

40 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 136 pts

Match videos

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