Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.7 – 178.44

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.8

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 109.92Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 41.65Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 104.13Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.9 ±9.8

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 75.87Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 55.57Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 47Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 447, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1501, 447, 2783

Auto

58.0 22%

Teleop

140.6 54%

Endgame

60.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 4926, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5010, 4926, 6498

Auto

26.3 15%

Teleop

115.0 64%

Endgame

37.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score255.7pts

Blue projected score178.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.3
Score range: 148–286
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.9Season APEX429.9

58Auto26.3

140.6Teleop115

60.1Endgame37.4

88Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	47
teleop	99	125
endgame	70	37
foul	0	0
total	238	209

Result

Final score

238 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Match videos

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