Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
175.33 – 111.41
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
182 – 47
Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 219Event APEX 75.2Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 55.04Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 45.09Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±16.2
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 42.61Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 48.61Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
7516Louisville Centrons
Provisional
Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 20.19Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5010, 4926, 6498
66
/ 100 compatProjected
175.3 pts
~2.1 RP (offseason)
Teams: 5010, 4926, 6498
Auto
27.7 16%
Teleop
108.2 62%
Endgame
39.8 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10137, 6340, 7516
48
/ 100 compatProjected
111.4 pts
~1.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 10137, 6340, 7516
Auto
20.9 20%
Teleop
62.0 58%
Endgame
23.2 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.24
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score175.3pts
Blue projected score111.4pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample68alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 63.9
- Score range
- 81–205
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
429.9Season APEX213.8
27.7Auto20.9
108.2Teleop62
39.8Endgame23.2
106Consistency27
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 13 |
| teleop | 136 | 11 |
| endgame | 27 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 182 | 47 |
Result
Final score
182 – 47
Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts
Match videos
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