Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.03 – 262.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.7 ±11.4

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 122.86Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 11.95Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 90.22Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.8

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 111.8Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 43.84Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 106.65Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 3814, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

225 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4272, 3814, 1720

Auto

37.7 17%

Teleop

137.1 61%

Endgame

50.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1501, 447, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1501, 447, 2783

Auto

51.5 19%

Teleop

154.1 58%

Endgame

60.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score225pts

Blue projected score262.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.3
Score range: 195–292
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.7Season APEX589.9

37.7Auto51.5

137.1Teleop154.1

50.6Endgame60.7

112Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	78
teleop	136	87
endgame	65	58
foul	0	0
total	234	223

Result

Final score

234 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 24.1 pts

Match videos

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