Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.99 – 100.9

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.3 ±11.2

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 106.14Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 31.33Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 101.52Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±12.4

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 44.66Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 5.84Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 50.4Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 5492, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

239 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1501, 5492, 2783

Auto

63.6 27%

Teleop

117.9 51%

Endgame

51.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10137, 7657, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10137, 7657, 6340

Auto

26.4 27%

Teleop

54.8 57%

Endgame

15.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score239pts

Blue projected score100.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.1
Score range: 71–269
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.3Season APEX216.1

63.6Auto26.4

117.9Teleop54.8

51.2Endgame15.1

97Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	13
teleop	184	42
endgame	32	17
foul	0	0
total	301	72

Result

Final score

301 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Match videos

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