Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.85 – 136.93

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.9 ±9.3

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 121.57Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 37.47Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 87.81Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 17.07Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 44.57Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 75.29Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 9491, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.9 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4272, 9491, 1720

Auto

43.9 18%

Teleop

159.3 64%

Endgame

45.0 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3494, 6498, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3494, 6498, 5010

Auto

18.3 13%

Teleop

77.7 56%

Endgame

42.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score246.9pts

Blue projected score136.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.9
Score range: 107–277
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 164.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.9Season APEX520.9

43.9Auto18.3

159.3Teleop77.7

45Endgame42.4

93Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	23
teleop	174	72
endgame	50	43
foul	0	0
total	275	138

Result

Final score

275 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Match videos

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