Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.82 – 176.07

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX -14.97Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 51.16Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 50.63Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.6 ±9.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 48.94Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 66.88Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 60.25Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 5010, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3494, 5010, 4926

Auto

32.8 33%

Teleop

55.5 57%

Endgame

9.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 4272, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 447, 4272, 6498

Auto

35.2 20%

Teleop

102.7 58%

Endgame

39.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score86.8pts

Blue projected score176.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.2
Score range: 58–205
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX434.6

32.8Auto35.2

55.5Teleop102.7

9.7Endgame39.2

106Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	23
teleop	101	130
endgame	48	68
foul	0	0
total	178	221

Result

Final score

178 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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