Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.45 – 110.8

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±11.2

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 73.17Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 47.78Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 22.5Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.4 ±13.7

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 51.61Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 36.91Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 22.28Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5492, 4272, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5492, 4272, 4926

Auto

44.7 32%

Teleop

83.4 61%

Endgame

9.7 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1501, 10137, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1501, 10137, 3814

Auto

26.1 27%

Teleop

50.4 53%

Endgame

19.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score143.5pts

Blue projected score110.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.6
Score range: 83–171
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.1Season APEX401.4

44.7Auto26.1

83.4Teleop50.4

9.7Endgame19.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	45
teleop	129	71
endgame	55	84
foul	0	0
total	259	200

Result

Final score

259 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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