Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.98 – 130.72

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 70.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.8 ±9.8

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 34.14Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 27.47Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 66.37Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.6 ±9.3

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 14.28Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX -12.87Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 129.31Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2783, 5010, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2783, 5010, 7657

Auto

33.3 28%

Teleop

61.6 51%

Endgame

25.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 3494, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9491, 3494, 1720

Auto

21.9 17%

Teleop

68.6 54%

Endgame

35.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score128pts

Blue projected score130.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 99–160
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 158.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.8Season APEX475.6

33.3Auto21.9

61.6Teleop68.6

25.2Endgame35.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	19
teleop	87	21
endgame	67	13
foul	0	0
total	192	53

Result

Final score

192 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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