Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.76 – 176.48

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 97.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±14.3

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 77.04Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 48.62Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 15.1Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.7 ±9.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 44.78Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 44.53Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 87.17Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 6498, 7516

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5010, 6498, 7516

Auto

15.1 11%

Teleop

88.9 64%

Endgame

34.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 6340, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 447, 6340, 1720

Auto

23.9 14%

Teleop

113.9 66%

Endgame

35.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score140.8pts

Blue projected score176.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.7
Score range: 110–207
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.8Season APEX393.7

15.1Auto23.9

88.9Teleop113.9

34.6Endgame35.9

83Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	160	155
endgame	60	97
foul	0	0
total	242	270

Result

Final score

242 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 97.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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