Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.68 – 140.61

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.6 ±14.3

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 22.38Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 19.2Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 15.1Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.4 ±12.4

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 44.78Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 57.04Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 38.79Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9491, 3494, 7516

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9491, 3494, 7516

Auto

5.7 10%

Teleop

25.2 46%

Endgame

23.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 4926, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 447, 4926, 10137

Auto

27.8 20%

Teleop

74.5 53%

Endgame

37.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.9
Score range: 26–172
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.6Season APEX294.4

5.7Auto27.8

25.2Teleop74.5

23.7Endgame37.1

58Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	21
teleop	30	84
endgame	21	39
foul	0	0
total	63	144

Result

Final score

63 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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