Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.07 – 118.98

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±9.3

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 115.87Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 109.6Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 4.6Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.8 ±12.4

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 44.53Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 25.83Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 48.62Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 1501, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4272, 1501, 7657

Auto

61.2 26%

Teleop

128.4 55%

Endgame

41.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6340, 3814, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6340, 3814, 6498

Auto

12.4 11%

Teleop

71.9 62%

Endgame

31.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.3 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score230.1pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.1
Score range: 88–261
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.9Season APEX285.8

61.2Auto12.4

128.4Teleop71.9

41.9Endgame31

81Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	18
teleop	104	52
endgame	47	29
foul	0	0
total	204	99

Result

Final score

204 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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