Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.79 – 153.47

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571 ±11.9

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 40.53Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 96.07Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 100.19Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±14.3

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 48.71Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 25.96Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 78.8Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10137, 2783, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10137, 2783, 1501

Auto

64.1 27%

Teleop

112.2 47%

Endgame

60.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6498, 7516, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6498, 7516, 5010

Auto

17.9 12%

Teleop

97.1 64%

Endgame

35.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score236.8pts

Blue projected score153.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.3
Score range: 124–266
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 163.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571Season APEX367.8

64.1Auto17.9

112.2Teleop97.1

60.9Endgame35.8

112Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	3
teleop	184	69
endgame	44	28
foul	0	0
total	286	100

Result

Final score

286 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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