Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.39 – 114.7

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.6 ±9.8

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 91.16Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 57.49Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 9.74Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±11.7

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 41Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 30.35Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 43.35Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 4926, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1720, 4926, 7657

Auto

27.1 17%

Teleop

116.3 72%

Endgame

17.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 5492, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9491, 5492, 447

Auto

20.9 21%

Teleop

53.0 53%

Endgame

26.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score114.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 85–188
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.6Season APEX262.9

27.1Auto20.9

116.3Teleop53

17.2Endgame26.7

75Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	9
teleop	94	68
endgame	9	38
foul	0	0
total	124	115

Result

Final score

124 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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