Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.8 – 160.58

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±14.7

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 16.38Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 32.68Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 58.74Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.6 ±11.9

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 35.88Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 86.97Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 37.73Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7657, 7516, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7657, 7516, 6340

Auto

14.1 14%

Teleop

75.0 74%

Endgame

12.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10137, 1720, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10137, 1720, 9491

Auto

36.1 24%

Teleop

93.6 61%

Endgame

23.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score107.8pts

Blue projected score160.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.8
Score range: 78–191
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 167.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185Season APEX353.6

14.1Auto36.1

75Teleop93.6

12.5Endgame23.7

42Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	22	140
endgame	10	40
foul	0	0
total	45	194

Result

Final score

45 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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