Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.4 – 65.53

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.7 ±9.8

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.81Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 88.56Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 50.03Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.7 ±11.2

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 20.42Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 34.39Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 10.72Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6498, 1501, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.4 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6498, 1501, 6340

Auto

36.5 21%

Teleop

98.0 55%

Endgame

43.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5492, 447, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5492, 447, 3494

Auto

7.3 14%

Teleop

16.5 31%

Endgame

29.2 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score178.4pts

Blue projected score65.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.9
Score range: 36–208
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 166.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.7Season APEX405.7

36.5Auto7.3

98Teleop16.5

43.1Endgame29.2

79Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	31
teleop	173	69
endgame	27	39
foul	0	0
total	251	139

Result

Final score

251 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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