Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.46 – 250.68

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±10.4

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 36.1Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 43.04Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 74.32Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592 ±11.9

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 41.21Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 105.33Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 104.14Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9491, 6498, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9491, 6498, 4926

Auto

32.7 22%

Teleop

98.9 66%

Endgame

18.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3814, 2783, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3814, 2783, 1720

Auto

33.8 13%

Teleop

145.1 57%

Endgame

73.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score153.5pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.2
Score range: 123–281
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.6Season APEX592

32.7Auto33.8

98.9Teleop145.1

18.3Endgame73.8

103Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	40
teleop	55	77
endgame	30	12
foul	0	0
total	112	129

Result

Final score

112 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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