Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.19 – 166.35

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±13.5

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 25.83Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 22.38Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 38.98Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.3 ±9.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 44.78Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 77.04Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 44.53Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3814, 9491, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3814, 9491, 5492

Auto

15.3 20%

Teleop

36.6 49%

Endgame

23.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 5010, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 447, 5010, 6340

Auto

22.5 14%

Teleop

94.9 58%

Endgame

45.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score166.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 56–197
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268Season APEX401.3

15.3Auto22.5

36.6Teleop94.9

23.4Endgame45.1

36Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	39	37
endgame	18	22
foul	45	0
total	117	71

Result

Final score

117 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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