Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.74 – 227.77

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.6 ±15.3

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 80.46Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 22Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 38.28Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.5 ±9.3

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 76.83Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 31.48Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 119.46Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 5492, 7516

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1501, 5492, 7516

Auto

38.7 32%

Teleop

59.2 49%

Endgame

23.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 9491, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5010, 9491, 4272

Auto

47.9 21%

Teleop

128.0 56%

Endgame

50.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score140.7pts

Blue projected score227.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87
Score range: 110–259
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.6Season APEX515.5

38.7Auto47.9

59.2Teleop128

23.5Endgame50.7

59Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	50
teleop	61	170
endgame	18	46
foul	0	0
total	118	266

Result

Final score

118 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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