Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.84 – 119.83

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.5 ±9.8

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 115.88Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 37.51Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 52.45Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.3 ±16.2

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 39.01Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 40.08Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 40.74Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 7657, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1720, 7657, 6498

Auto

31.8 15%

Teleop

145.1 68%

Endgame

35.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7516, 447, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7516, 447, 3814

Auto

-11.9 0%

Teleop

67.2 58%

Endgame

60.3 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score205.8pts

Blue projected score119.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86
Score range: 89–237
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.5Season APEX256.3

31.8Auto-11.9

145.1Teleop67.2

35.7Endgame60.3

83Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	107	74
endgame	11	25
foul	0	0
total	130	118

Result

Final score

130 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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