Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.19 – 157.71

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.2 ±11.9

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 29.02Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 37.96Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 112.21Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.1 ±9.8

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 90.31Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 73.01Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX -5.61Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6340, 10137, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6340, 10137, 4272

Auto

57.3 32%

Teleop

78.3 44%

Endgame

43.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 4926, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2783, 4926, 3494

Auto

35.6 22%

Teleop

90.3 56%

Endgame

36.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score179.2pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.5
Score range: 127–210
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 170.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.2Season APEX591.1

57.3Auto35.6

78.3Teleop90.3

43.2Endgame36.2

109Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	36
teleop	128	95
endgame	42	77
foul	0	0
total	221	208

Result

Final score

221 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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