Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.34 – 158.29

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.1 ±10.4

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 56.76Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 27.71Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 14.87Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.2 ±11.2

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 77.66Rank 9Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 26.55Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 54.08Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4926, 7657, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4926, 7657, 6340

Auto

26.4 26%

Teleop

54.4 53%

Endgame

22.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 5492, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5010, 5492, 6498

Auto

34.8 24%

Teleop

78.5 54%

Endgame

31.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score99.3pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.9
Score range: 68–189
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 170.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.1Season APEX419.2

26.4Auto34.8

54.4Teleop78.5

22.1Endgame31.1

84Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	30
teleop	126	78
endgame	12	21
foul	0	15
total	184	144

Result

Final score

184 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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