Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.41 – 137.09

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±15.8

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 49.7Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 116.77Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 42.94Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±10.4

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 19.94Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 82.39Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 34.76Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7516, 4272, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7516, 4272, 10137

Auto

37.8 18%

Teleop

103.9 50%

Endgame

66.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 2783, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9491, 2783, 447

Auto

18.6 14%

Teleop

63.2 49%

Endgame

48.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.4pts

Blue projected score137.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 107–239
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.7Season APEX436.2

37.8Auto18.6

103.9Teleop63.2

66.6Endgame48

105Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	32
teleop	87	140
endgame	40	57
foul	0	0
total	179	229

Result

Final score

179 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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