Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.63 – 120.59

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.2 ±13.9

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 36.49Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 115.82Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 74.32Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.8 ±11.4

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 105.06Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX -14.11Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 29.64Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7516, 1720, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7516, 1720, 1501

Auto

41.4 18%

Teleop

147.7 65%

Endgame

39.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4272, 3494, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4272, 3494, 3814

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

51.9 41%

Endgame

50.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score120.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106
Score range: 92–256
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.2Season APEX544.8

41.4Auto25.3

147.7Teleop51.9

39.4Endgame50.1

72Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	20
teleop	181	106
endgame	49	61
foul	10	0
total	279	187

Result

Final score

279 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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