Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.67 – 99.13

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260 ±13.5

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 49.93Rank 14Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 65.42Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 39.32Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.4 ±11.9

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX -9.85Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 64.31Rank 10Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 44.67Rank 4Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3814, 7657, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3814, 7657, 5492

Auto

27.4 21%

Teleop

60.1 47%

Endgame

41.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3494, 6498, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3494, 6498, 10137

Auto

27.4 27%

Teleop

38.2 38%

Endgame

34.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score154.7pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 68–186
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 170.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260Season APEX383.4

27.4Auto27.4

60.1Teleop38.2

41.1Endgame34.7

123Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	26
teleop	28	47
endgame	25	18
foul	0	0
total	60	91

Result

Final score

60 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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