Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.27 – 165.26

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 70.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.3 ±9.8

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 78.08Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 53.12Rank 12Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 65.07Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.4 ±9.8

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 111.84Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 0.86Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 52.56Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4926, 447, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4926, 447, 1501

Auto

29.0 14%

Teleop

117.5 59%

Endgame

53.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 6340, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1720, 6340, 2783

Auto

36.5 21%

Teleop

78.4 46%

Endgame

56.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 135–226
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 167.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.3Season APEX568.4

29Auto36.5

117.5Teleop78.4

53.9Endgame56.8

114Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	43
teleop	95	186
endgame	17	36
foul	0	0
total	155	265

Result

Final score

155 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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