Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.95 – 72.3

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±15.6

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 11.67Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 65.71Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 76.57Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.5 ±10.4

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 41.28Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -22.27Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 53.29Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6340, 7516, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6340, 7516, 5492

Auto

34.3 23%

Teleop

91.6 61%

Endgame

23.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 9491, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2783, 9491, 7657

Auto

21.4 37%

Teleop

14.3 25%

Endgame

22.0 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score154pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.6
Score range: 42–184
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.1Season APEX388.5

34.3Auto21.4

91.6Teleop14.3

23.2Endgame22

36Consistency209

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	37
teleop	7	117
endgame	18	57
foul	30	0
total	69	211

Result

Final score

69 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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