Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.4 – 178.91

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.6 ±9.3

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 4.6Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 19.2Rank 16Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 109.6Rank 5Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±14.7

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 106.77Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 15.1Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 57.04Rank 6Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7657, 3494, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7657, 3494, 1501

Auto

37.3 28%

Teleop

69.7 52%

Endgame

26.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 7516, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2783, 7516, 4926

Auto

40.4 23%

Teleop

97.4 55%

Endgame

40.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score133.4pts

Blue projected score178.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.5
Score range: 102–210
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 172.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.6Season APEX438

37.3Auto40.4

69.7Teleop97.4

26.8Endgame40.5

89Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	27
teleop	86	93
endgame	6	37
foul	0	0
total	132	157

Result

Final score

132 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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