Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.34 – 169.8

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.6 ±15.1

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 74.66Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 22.13Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 84.55Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±12.1

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 42.02Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 59.48Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 68.3Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9410, 5119, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 5119, 9551

Auto

25.0 14%

Teleop

102.8 57%

Endgame

51.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9316, 5126, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 5126, 5268

Auto

25.8 19%

Teleop

80.8 60%

Endgame

28.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.3pts

Blue projected score169.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 147–204
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.6Season APEX336

25Auto25.8

102.8Teleop80.8

51Endgame28

1Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	137	83
endgame	35	77
foul	0	5
total	194	184

Result

Final score

194 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Match videos

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