Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.04 – 152.46

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±15.3

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 45.52Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 22.34Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 25.18Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±13.3

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 73.69Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 17.19Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 61.58Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 1775, 5147

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 1775, 5147

Auto

28.0 30%

Teleop

48.1 52%

Endgame

17.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1730, 5098, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 5098, 1810

Auto

49.3 32%

Teleop

81.5 53%

Endgame

22.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.4
Score range: 71–174
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.4Season APEX321.7

28Auto49.3

48.1Teleop81.5

17.2Endgame22.3

42Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	46
teleop	19	58
endgame	41	13
foul	25	15
total	115	0

Result

Final score

115 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 87.2 pts

Match videos

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