Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.6 – 135.12

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±13.9

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 1.92Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 33.67Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 49.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.1 ±12.8

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 69.51Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 9.43Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 56.18Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5013, 757, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5013, 757, 1802

Auto

29.3 35%

Teleop

38.7 47%

Endgame

14.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2357, 1764, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 1764, 2345

Auto

27.9 21%

Teleop

77.2 58%

Endgame

28.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.6pts

Blue projected score135.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.5
Score range: 63–157
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.5Season APEX374.1

29.3Auto27.9

38.7Teleop77.2

14.6Endgame28.6

30Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	13
teleop	70	66
endgame	18	19
foul	20	25
total	154	123

Result

Final score

154 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 pts

Match videos

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