Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.81 – 180.16

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±13.3

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 78.14Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 22.07Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 66.6Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±12.1

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 44.72Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 64.45Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 70.99Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1730, 5098, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 5098, 1810

Auto

49.7 30%

Teleop

89.5 54%

Endgame

26.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9316, 5126, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 5126, 5268

Auto

29.2 19%

Teleop

92.9 60%

Endgame

33.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score180.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.3
Score range: 145–202
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.7Season APEX336

49.7Auto29.2

89.5Teleop92.9

26.6Endgame33.6

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	15
teleop	55	38
endgame	8	13
foul	0	65
total	109	131

Result

Final score

109 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Match videos

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