Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.47 – 81.29

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.6 ±15.1

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 71.82Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5119Team STEAM

Season APEX 58Event APEX 19.07Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 79.58Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±15.3

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 41.85Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 18.3Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 21.14Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9410, 5119, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 5119, 9551

Auto

25.4 15%

Teleop

95.1 57%

Endgame

45.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4418, 1775, 5147

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 1775, 5147

Auto

28.6 35%

Teleop

36.9 45%

Endgame

17.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.5pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.2
Score range: 59–192
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.6Season APEX252.4

25.4Auto28.6

95.1Teleop36.9

45Endgame17.1

2Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	24
teleop	129	76
endgame	72	16
foul	0	5
total	224	121

Result

Final score

224 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Match videos

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