Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.5 – 139.5

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.4 ±12.2

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 4.6Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 99.61Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 66.29Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.1 ±12.8

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 72.3Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 10.71Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2345Kearnage

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 56.49Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1847, 9126, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1847, 9126, 5801

Auto

23.8 15%

Teleop

92.7 57%

Endgame

46.2 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2357, 1764, 2345

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 1764, 2345

Auto

30.5 22%

Teleop

77.3 56%

Endgame

31.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.5pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 118–193
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.4Season APEX374.1

23.8Auto30.5

92.7Teleop77.3

46.2Endgame31.4

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	97	77
endgame	63	19
foul	15	5
total	192	120

Result

Final score

192 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Match videos

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