Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
392.05 – 183.91
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
344 – 174
Prediction correct · off by 29 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 661 ±11.2
Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 212.2Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 34.33Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 145.52Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.6 ±15.1
Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 85.73Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58Event APEX 23.04Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 75.14Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1987, 1723, 1986
81
/ 100 compatProjected
392 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 1987, 1723, 1986
Auto
84.4 23%
Teleop
217.3 58%
Endgame
73.3 20%
Strengths
- · 1987 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9551, 5119, 9410
77
/ 100 compatProjected
183.9 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 9551, 5119, 9410
Auto
24.6 14%
Teleop
109.2 60%
Endgame
47.6 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score392pts
Blue projected score183.9pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 208.1
- Score range
- 161–415
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
661Season APEX300.6
84.4Auto24.6
217.3Teleop109.2
73.3Endgame47.6
0Consistency4
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 21 |
| teleop | 217 | 109 |
| endgame | 76 | 39 |
| foul | 10 | 5 |
| total | 344 | 174 |
Result
Final score
344 – 174
Prediction correct · off by 29 pts
Match videos
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