Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.65 – 98.78

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±12.1

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 43.12Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 60.74Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 69.79Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±13.9

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 7.68Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 37.82Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 53.28Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9316, 5126, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 5126, 5268

Auto

24.4 17%

Teleop

81.6 57%

Endgame

38.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5013, 757, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5013, 757, 1802

Auto

32.4 35%

Teleop

44.4 48%

Endgame

15.3 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173.7pts

Blue projected score98.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.9
Score range: 76–197
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336Season APEX361.5

24.4Auto32.4

81.6Teleop44.4

38Endgame15.3

39Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	43
teleop	58	57
endgame	43	17
foul	20	0
total	141	117

Result

Final score

141 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Match videos

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