Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.72 – 159.49

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.6 ±13.3

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 12.29Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 71.43Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 8Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.8 ±13

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 15.17Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 98.29Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 46.03Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1775, 9126, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1775, 9126, 2457

Auto

19.4 23%

Teleop

42.9 50%

Endgame

23.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1994, 1987, 757

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1994, 1987, 757

Auto

31.4 20%

Teleop

81.1 52%

Endgame

44.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.7pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.8
Score range: 72–179
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.6Season APEX493.8

19.4Auto31.4

42.9Teleop81.1

23.7Endgame44.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	40
teleop	28	87
endgame	7	51
foul	5	5
total	58	183

Result

Final score

58 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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