Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.85 – 113.47

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.3 ±14.5

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 11.14Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 26Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 13.71Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.1 ±12.2

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 55.43Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 26Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 32.04Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 935, 937, 5013

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 935, 937, 5013

Auto

13.4 28%

Teleop

27.1 57%

Endgame

7.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9551, 4418, 2357

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9551, 4418, 2357

Auto

29.8 27%

Teleop

57.8 53%

Endgame

22.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.9pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 31–133
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.3Season APEX406.1

13.4Auto29.8

27.1Teleop57.8

7.4Endgame22.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	52
teleop	11	123
endgame	0	26
foul	0	0
total	28	201

Result

Final score

28 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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