Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.19 – 99.64

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.8 ±14.5

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 16.66Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 9.81Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 46.72Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.4 ±12.8

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 74.37Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1775Tigerbytes

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 19.95Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 5.32Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5141, 1764, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5141, 1764, 4959

Auto

15.5 25%

Teleop

29.9 48%

Endgame

16.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2357, 1775, 6843

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 1775, 6843

Auto

24.7 25%

Teleop

60.4 60%

Endgame

14.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.2pts

Blue projected score99.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 51–122
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.8Season APEX360.4

15.5Auto24.7

29.9Teleop60.4

16.8Endgame14.8

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	32	29
endgame	29	42
foul	0	0
total	79	84

Result

Final score

79 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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