Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.92 – 36.63

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±12.8

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 68.56Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 34.62Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 70.74Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.6 ±17

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX -1.87Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 1.71Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5189Team K.I.S.S.

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 36.79Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5801, 1723, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 1723, 1810

Auto

37.2 23%

Teleop

90.5 56%

Endgame

32.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5013, 10453, 5189

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5013, 10453, 5189

Auto

13.5 32%

Teleop

18.0 43%

Endgame

10.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173.9pts

Blue projected score36.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.3
Score range: 15–196
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.8Season APEX251.6

37.2Auto13.5

90.5Teleop18

32.8Endgame10.6

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	9
teleop	86	11
endgame	20	16
foul	0	10
total	143	46

Result

Final score

143 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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