Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.48 – 42.43

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.5 ±17

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 23.81Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4809Black Knight Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 30.51Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 100.16Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±16.3

5147Hornets

Season APEX 87.5Event APEX 18.37Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 3.55Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 20.51Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1769, 4809, 9126

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1769, 4809, 9126

Auto

29.4 19%

Teleop

83.2 54%

Endgame

40.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5147, 1763, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5147, 1763, 9445

Auto

15.1 28%

Teleop

17.2 32%

Endgame

21.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score42.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112
Score range: 20–176
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.5Season APEX198.1

29.4Auto15.1

83.2Teleop17.2

40.6Endgame21.2

7Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	20
teleop	64	26
endgame	58	9
foul	5	0
total	141	55

Result

Final score

141 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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