Qualification · Qualification 64
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
132.74 – 113.5
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
134 – 136
Prediction missed · off by 11.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±13.3
Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 73.42Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 28.49Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 30.83Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 53.42Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 43.8Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 16.28Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5268, 935, 757
64
/ 100 compatProjected
132.7 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 5268, 935, 757
Auto
18.7 16%
Teleop
62.9 54%
Endgame
34.0 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2345, 4959, 1775
56
/ 100 compatProjected
113.5 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 2345, 4959, 1775
Auto
19.0 18%
Teleop
66.6 62%
Endgame
22.1 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score132.7pts
Blue projected score113.5pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.2
- Score range
- 92–155
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
289Season APEX271.4
18.7Auto19
62.9Teleop66.6
34Endgame22.1
27Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 14 |
| teleop | 81 | 79 |
| endgame | 25 | 43 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 134 | 136 |
Result
Final score
134 – 136
Prediction missed · off by 11.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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