Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.87 – 157.19

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.1 ±13

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 6.71Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 214.76Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 4.4Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.4 ±13.9

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 28.13Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.77Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 73.29Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 937, 1987, 6843

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 937, 1987, 6843

Auto

47.9 21%

Teleop

130.2 58%

Endgame

45.4 20%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2410, 1802, 5126

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2410, 1802, 5126

Auto

33.1 22%

Teleop

82.8 56%

Endgame

31.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.9pts

Blue projected score157.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 135–248
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.1Season APEX284.4

47.9Auto33.1

130.2Teleop82.8

45.4Endgame31.3

25Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	30
teleop	115	40
endgame	43	0
foul	0	0
total	221	70

Result

Final score

221 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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